EFC 16 Fight Predictions

Following a longer lay-period than usual, both between events and blog posts, EFC Africa 16 is now just around the corner. The event will play host to three title fights from across the weight division spectrum – featherweight, welterweight and heavyweight.

The much anticipated sixteenth edition of Africa’s biggest MMA spectacle has had many changes to the fight card since it was initially announced and there are many new names on the roster, here is the latest rendition and my predictions for the fights.

EFC 16 fight predictions

Ruan Potts vs Bernardo Mikixi (Heavyweight title fight)

Winner: Ruan Potts via Submission

If Bernardo Mikixi is going to win this fight, he has one way to do it – swing and swing hard. The Black Panther has shown impressive knock-out power in his last few fights, but his ground game appears to have some serious holes.

Though Ruan Potts has the tools to exploit this weakness in Mikixi, the undefeated champion has also shown a willingness to stand and trade, confident in his own abilities. Though likely still a favourite in the stand-up, should Potts choose to trade with Mikixi he will afford his opponent a much greater chance in this bout.

Ruan Potts is an experienced fighter, too experienced I feel to let Mikixi into the fight. Potts will close the distance early, get the fight to the ground and submit Bernardo Mikixi in the first round to retain his EFC Africa heavyweight title.

Jadyson Costa vs Michiel Opperman (Welterweight title fight)

Winner: Michiel Opperman via TKO

Jadyson Costa has proven his mettle in the EFC. The current welterweight champion is a wizard on the ground, has great striking skills and experience second to none in the promotion. Costa is on a three fight winning streak and has shown no signs of slowing down. The former Pride fighter has even begun to showboat and toy with his opponents, signs that his confidence is at an all time high.

Michiel Opperman is the polar opposite of Jadyson Costa - a technical striker who, over the last few years, has worked tirelessly improving his ground game. Opperman is methodical in the Hexagon and doesn't appear to show any emotion.

Jadyson Costa will be the hands down favourite going into this fight, but I believe that Opperman has the skillset to upset the Brazilian champion. Using his size, reach and ever improving wrestling skills, I believe Opperman will be able to keep the fight standing, a domain where he will likely hold the advantage. One can never write off the champion, but I am going to predict the Opperman wins via second round TKO.

Demarte Pena vs Terrence Griessel (Featherweight title fight)

Winner: Demarte Pena via Submission

Demarte Pena has shown that he knows how to win fights. The young champion has not had an easy run to the top, but has overcome adversity like a true champion, and gained a wealth of experience doing so. Pena looks better every time he steps into the Hexagon, a dangerous thought for featherweight division fighters.

Terrence Griessel’s recent drop to featherweight was a successful one, besting Gareth Buirski en route a title shot (after Nel was unable to fight). Griessel is a strong, tenacious featherweight, who has been given a great opportunity to make a statement.

Both fighters are grinders, and I don't expect this fight to end quickly. I believe Pena will be a little quicker in the stand-up and more fluid on the ground. I predict that, after a few long rounds on the mat, Demarte Pena will seize an opportunity to finish Griessel via submission in the later rounds.

EFC 16 Non–title fight predictions

Winner	Loser	Method	Round
Wade Henderson	Tumelo Maphuta	Submission	1
Markus Taljaard	Gareth Buirski	Decision	3
Francois Kabulu	Nicholas Radley	Decision	3
Andrew van Zyl	Ian Visser	Submission	1
JC Lamprecht	Daniel Sinclair	TKO	2
Danie van Heerden	Dain Neveling	Submission	2
Jean-Luc Kazadi	Francois Groenewald	TKO	2
Wade Groth	Khalil Akleker	TKO	1
Brendon Groenewald	Sors Grobbelaar	Submission	1

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Ruan Potts vs Bernardo Mikixi EFC 16 Heavyweight title fight

The Extreme Fighting Championship has announced that Ruan Potts will face Bernardo Mikixi at EFC Africa 16 for the promotions heavyweight title. The event is set to take place at Carnival City in Johannesburg on the 19 October 2012.

Ruan "Fangzz" Potts

After a hiatus of nearly 9 months, undefeated EFC Africa heavyweight champion Ruan Potts (14-0) will finally return to the Hexagon to defend his title. Potts, who defeated Andrew van Zyl at EFC Africa 11, has had a shortage of worthy adversaries of late, which has forced the champion to remain on the sidelines longer than he would have liked. Potts is currently in the United States training with some of the worlds finest MMA athletes and will likely raise the bar for heavyweight fighters in South Africa.

Ruan Potts

Bernardo "The Black Panther" Mikixi

2012 has seen Bernardo Mikixi (6-3) string together a quickfire two fight winning streak. This has catapulted him into the number one contender spot and earned the Black Panther a second shot at the Heavyweight title. Mikixi lost his initial title shot against Norman Wessels at EFC Africa 5 and will want to rewrite the history books in his second title fight against his toughest opponent yet in Potts.

Bernardo Mikixi

Ruan Potts vs Bernardo Mikixi at EFC 16

Ruan Potts has been rampant in the EFC heavyweight division, notching up an impressive 4-0 record. Fangzz has also defeated both men who have defeated Mikixi in the Hexagon and will certainly come in a firm favourite. Mikixi however has shown he should not be written off and has serious knockout power. Either way, this fight does not promise to be a long fight.

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5 fights to make after EFC 14

With EFC 14 behind us, it’s time to once more take stock and look toward the future. Here are 5 fights that I think the EFC should consider making in the near future.

5 fights to make after EFC 14

Jeremy Smith vs Garreth McLellan

Although I have never been an avid supporter of a quick rematch between Garreth McLellan and Jeremy Smith, it seems that this fight has to happen. Garreth McLellan looked focussed at EFC 14 where he defeated Danie van Heerden in what was touted to be a number on contender bout. With the major players in the middleweight division already matched up, Jeremy Smith vs Garreth McLellan 2 now seems inevitable.

Ruan Potts vs Bernardo Mikixi

Bernardo Mikixi defeated Mahmoud Hassan at EFC 14 to take his current win streak to two. Given the state of the heavyweight division, this is enough to warrant a title shot against heavyweight champion Ruan Potts.

Demarte Pena vs Wentzel Nel

Wentzel Nel looked strong at featherweight as he defeated Denzil Wait via second round TKO. With three straight EFC wins, including one against a top 5 featherweight, Wentzel Nel has surely earned himself a shot at Demarte Pena and the featherweight title.

Wesley Hawkey vs Abdul Hassan

Wesley Hawkey showed that he is one of the best featherweights in South Africa at EFC 14. The Durban based fighter will want to get into the Hexagon as quickly as possible and work his way back up to a shot at the title. After his win against Leo Gloss at EFC 13, Abdul Hassan finds himself on a similar path and a fight between the two now many perfect sense.

Adam Speechly vs Alex Cheboub

Both Adam Speechly and Alex Cheboub have suffered recent losses to Costa Ioannou and will want to work their way back to the top of the division. The two master grapplers will be a great test for each other and hopefully put on a great fight for the fans.

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EFC Africa - Fight Statistics

The Extreme Fighting Championship has done wonders for South African MMA. In a previous article, 5 most momentous EFC events, I summarised the history of the promotion and listed some of its groundbreaking achievements. This article however, is less about the events and more about that which makes the promotion’s events tick – the EFC fights. For the sake of posterity, I have delved a little deeper into this fight data and recorded my findings.

In just over 2 years, the EFC has successfully concluded 157 fights spanning 13 events and  7  weight divisions. Here is some of the information on EFC fights and fighters which has come to light in my initial analysis:

Most active EFC divisions

Each weight division offers something different for the fans and because of this, fight cards are generally divided up amongst the promotions key divisions. In the EFC’s history, here are the weight divisions which have had the majority of the limelight:

EFC Division	Fights
Welterweight	45
Middleweight	32
Lightweight	26
Heavyweight	19
Light Heavyweight	19
Featherweight	15
Super Heavyweight	1

Most common EFC fight results

An MMA bout can end in various ways. Some fights are ended by the fighters in the Hexagon, others are left up to the judges to decide. Here are the most common ways in which EFC fights end:

Fight result	Fights
TKO	63
Submission	62
Decision	17
KO	14
Disqualification	1

Most common EFC submissions

The sport of MMA offers fighters many different submission manoeuvres. Some are high percentage, others riskier. Here are the most commonly executed submissions in the Hexagon:

Submission	Fights
Rear-naked Choke	28
Guillotine Choke	10
Armbar	9
Triangle Choke	8
Keylock	2
Kimura	2
Heek Hook	1
Omoplata	1

Most common round for EFC fights to finish

Most EFC Africa fights are scheduled for a 3 rounds of five minutes. Title fights consist of 5 rounds of five minutes. Here are the most common rounds in which fights finish:

Round fight finished	Fights
Round 1	101
Round 2	25
Round 3	26
Round 4	3
Round 5	2

Fighters with the most EFC fights

Since the EFC’s maiden event in 2009, the EFC Hexagon has been graced by 127 fighters from across South Africa and the globe. Here are the faces we see most often in the cage:

EFC Fighter	Fights
Leo Gloss	9
Wade Henderson	9
Jacques Joubert	7
Dino Bagattin	7
Wentzel Nel	7
Nolan Swanepoel	7
Dallas Jakobi	6
Leon Mynhardt	6
Garreth McLellan	6
Adam Speechly	6
Norman Wessels	5
Alex Cheboub	5
Danie van Heerden	5
Raymond Ahana	5
Remo Ralph	5
Bernardo Mikixi	5
JP Joubert	5
Chett Meyer	5
Juan Lubbe	5
Francois Kabulu	5

Fighters with the most EFC wins

Every fighter who sets foot in the Hexagon does so with a similar goal – to win. Of the 75 fighters who have won fights in the EFC, here are the most successful EFC fighters in terms of wins inside the promotion:

EFC Fighter	Wins
Leo Gloss	6
Garreth McLellan	5
Wentzel Nel	5
Dino Bagattin	5
Norman Wessels	4
Jacques Joubert	4
Costa Ioannou	4
Chett Meyer	4
Ruan Potts	4
Wade Henderson	4
Dallas Jakobi	4
Nolan Swanepoel	4
Adam Speechly	4

Fighters with the most EFC losses

For every winner, there must be a loser and 94 fighters have lost fights within the promotion. Here are the fighters who have lost the most fights inside the EFC Hexagon:

EFC Fighter	Losses
Wade Henderson	5
Remo Ralph	4
Jacques Joubert	3
Francois Kabulu	3
Jean-Luc Kazadi	3
Ashley Calvert	3
Raymond Ahana	3
Ian Swart	3
Chad Hepburn	3
Jake Els	3
Leo Gloss	3
Mawande Vapi	3
Luis Mendes	3
Juan Lubbe	3
Gina Ifuki	3
Nolan Swanepoel	3
Leon Mynhardt	3

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